Academy staff have been repairing its seawalls and installing necessary backflow preventers within its storm water system.ĭoor dams designed to protect academic buildings and other structures from flooding have also been installed. Recognizing the threat of increased flooding, the USNA has multiple flood hazard mitigation measures in place and in process. By 2100 in the intermediate scenario, Category 2 storms expose one-third of the academy to surge flooding five to 10 feet deep. Today, most storm surge flooding from Category 2 storms is less than five feet deep. Sea level rise exposes the academy to deeper, more severe flooding.In both the intermediate and highest scenarios, sea level rise increases the area exposed to flooding from Category 1 storms by nearly 30 percent by 2100. Sea level rise exposes previously unaffected areas to storm surge.In the highest scenario, which projects 6.4 feet of rise, the area that floods with daily tides climbs above 35 percent by 2100. In the intermediate scenario, with four feet of sea level rise, roughly 10 percent of the academy’s land area is part of the tidal zone (flooding daily) by 2100. In both scenarios, currently flood-prone areas are underwater nearly constantly by 2070. Sea level rise could claim currently utilized areas.By 2070, flood conditions begin to span several high tide cycles and floodprone areas are underwater 85 percent of the time. The intermediate scenario shows the USNA experiencing roughly 400 tidal flooding events per year-on average, more than one per day-by 2050. Certain locations could flood with each high tide.In the highest scenario, almost 15 percent of the academy is flooded with this same frequency by 2070. Today, the Annapolis waterfront, including parts of the academy, is affected by flooding during extra-high tides roughly 50 times per year. Flooding during extreme high tides will become more extensive.The results below outline potential future flooding scenarios for the USNA, assuming no new measures are taken to prevent or reduce flooding. This is a conservative metric: in reality, far less frequent flooding would likely lead to land being considered unusable. In this analysis, land inundated by at least one high tide each day is considered a loss. Tidal flooding, land loss, and storm surge from hurricanes were all modeled. The academy's exposure to coastal flooding is projected for the years 2050, 2070, and 2100 based on the National Climate Assessment’s midrange or “intermediate-high” sea level rise scenario (referred to here as “intermediate”) and a “highest” scenario based on a more rapid rate of increase. It is situated within an East Coast sea level rise hot spot, where natural subsidence, low-lying topography, and changing ocean circulation patterns contribute to above-average rise. The USNA is located in Annapolis, Maryland, where the Severn River joins the Chesapeake Bay. This location is one of 18 military installations featured in the 2016 report, "The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas."
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